Housing 2011 Outlook: Can it Get Any Worse?

We hope not. The last two years have been the worst years for real estate since the Great Depression. At yesterday’s General Session here at Inman Connect in NYC, four experts gave us their view of where the market will be going in 2011. Of course, to wake up to a rise in unemployment claims this morning only underscores what they said: might as well eat your Wheaties. 2011 is going to be pretty much the same as 2010, with maybe a little improvement.

Despite what seems like a politically correct movement to discourage home ownership, Inman founder Bradley Inman pointed out that Americans are uniquely independent and as such, will probably still value home ownership — might I add, also multiple home ownership. Home ownership, said Brad, reflects our independence. Americans right now are scared to buy homes. The “experts” — Ted C. Jones, Senior VP and Chief Economist for Stewart Title Guaranty Co, Carter W. Murdoch, PhD and SVP over at Bank of America, Noah Rosenblatt, founder of UrbanDigs.com, and Joel Singer, CEO of the California Association of Realtors, predict this:

-Slight increase in re-sales in 2011

-Mortgage underwriting will still be problematic

-Mortgage rates to stay about where they are

-Banks repairing balance sheets, mortgage underwriting still quite tight

-Prodded by the government, business loans should increase to stimulate jobs.

-Market winners: DC, Baltimore, Minneapolis

-Market losers: Boise, Detroit, Las Vegas and Sacramento

-Inflation coukd be an unintended consequence of government policies